Hormuz Iran Investability Index

Iran Investment Readiness

A monthly measure of Iran’s investment readiness, execution risk, and capital access conditions. The index separates market attractiveness from the practical ability to enter, operate, protect capital, and exit.

January 2026
31.7 /100
Watch Only
Monthly change: New

Investability Spectrum

From structurally unattractive conditions to strong investment readiness.

31.7/100
0–25 Closed Broad foreign capital is effectively blocked or exposed to extreme operating risk. 26–40 Watch High-risk environment; monitoring and preparation are more realistic than broad entry. 41–55 Selective Some sectors may be investable with strong controls, structuring, and local intelligence. 56–70 Entry Structured entry becomes possible in selected sectors and geographies. 71–100 Strong Strong conditions for foreign capital entry, operation, protection, and exit.
Watch Only High-risk environment; monitoring and preparation are more realistic than broad entry.

Investability Trend

Overall score movement across recent months.

31.7/100
+0.0% since Jan
0 25 50 75 100 Score Jan 31.7
Selected reading January 2026 Watch Only
31.7/100
Domestic25
External45
Macro28
Freedom30
Infra40
Trade25

Domestic Stability

Internal stability, policy continuity, social order, and institutional predictability.

25 /100
MoM: New

External Security & Geopolitical Risk

Regional tension, war risk, diplomatic pressure, and external security conditions.

45 /100
MoM: New

Macroeconomic Stability

Inflation, currency volatility, liquidity growth, fiscal pressure, and monetary stability.

28 /100
MoM: New

Economic & Regulatory Freedom

Pricing freedom, licensing, ownership conditions, regulation, and state intervention.

30 /100
MoM: New

Infrastructure & Execution Capacity

Power, logistics, ports, transport, internet, industrial capacity, and workforce readiness.

40 /100
MoM: New

Trade & Financial Connectivity

Sanctions, banking access, payment channels, shipping, insurance, tariffs, and capital mobility.

25 /100
MoM: New

Monthly Commentary

The January reading shows Iran already in high-risk watchlist territory. Domestic unrest, internet disruption, currency pressure, and elevated inflation weakened investability, while external security had not yet deteriorated into full war conditions.

  • Domestic stability was weak due to reported unrest, arrests, and elevated internal pressure.
  • External security remained materially risky but had not yet reached the severe conflict levels seen later in the quarter.
  • Macroeconomic stability stayed low as inflation, exchange-rate pressure, and policy uncertainty constrained broad entry.
  • Infrastructure remained partially functional, but internet disruption and operational frictions reduced execution capacity.
  • Trade and financial connectivity remained heavily constrained by sanctions, banking limitations, and settlement risk.

Methodology

The Hurmuz Index measures Iran’s monthly investment readiness on a 0–100 scale. It does not measure opportunity alone; it measures whether capital can realistically enter, operate, be protected, and exit under current conditions.

Each monthly reading is produced through an AI-assisted analyst workflow that reviews recent macroeconomic data, policy changes, sanctions and trade conditions, security developments, infrastructure signals, market stress, and credible news flow. That evidence is converted into six sub-index scores, then combined through fixed weights to produce the final reading.

Domestic Stability Weight 17%
External Security & Geopolitical Risk Weight 17%
Macroeconomic Stability Weight 17%
Economic & Regulatory Freedom Weight 16%
Infrastructure & Execution Capacity Weight 13%
Trade & Financial Connectivity Weight 20%

Final Score = Σ(Sub-index score × weight) / 100. All dimension weights sum to 100%.

Limitations & What It Isn’t

  • It is not investment advice or a recommendation to enter Iran.
  • It is not a political endorsement or a forecast of political outcomes.
  • It is not a substitute for legal, sanctions, counterparty, or transaction-level due diligence.
  • It does not claim that a low national score eliminates all sector-specific opportunities.
  • It should be read as a monthly signal framework, not a precise prediction engine.

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