Iran Investment Readiness

The September reading closes at 18/100, keeping Iran firmly in Structurally Closed territory. Renewed military exchanges and attacks on shipping increased security risk early in the month, while a late-month diplomatic push offered only limited relief. The more persistent deterioration came from the economy: the rial reached another record low, inflation remained extremely high, oil-export revenues were severely constrained, and sanctions expanded across aviation, banking, digital assets and procurement networks. Core state and industrial capacity continued to function, but shortages, weak purchasing power, disrupted supply chains and restricted capital access left practical investment conditions highly constrained at month-end.

• Renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges and the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began kept external-security risk at severe levels, despite renewed diplomatic contacts late in the month.
• Domestic stability remained fragile under extreme economic pressure, job losses, shortages and continued security controls, but no new nationwide protest wave emerged.
• Macroeconomic stability weakened further as the rial fell beyond 2.5 million per U.S. dollar and inflation remained above 80%, sharply reducing pricing visibility and capital protection.
• Infrastructure and execution capacity remained constrained by energy pressure, raw-material shortages, supply-chain disruption and accumulated wartime damage, while core industrial and public-service networks continued operating.
• Trade and financial connectivity remained extremely limited as the naval blockade suppressed Iranian oil exports and new U.S. sanctions targeted aviation, banking, digital assets and procurement networks, although some China-linked trade channels and Gulf shipping activity persisted.