Hormuz Iran Investability Index

Iran Investment Readiness

A monthly measure of Iran’s investment readiness, execution risk, and capital access conditions. The index separates market attractiveness from the practical ability to enter, operate, protect capital, and exit.

May 2026
27.0 /100
Watch Only
Monthly change: +11.1%

Investability Spectrum

From structurally unattractive conditions to strong investment readiness.

27.0/100
0–25 Closed Broad foreign capital is effectively blocked or exposed to extreme operating risk. 26–40 Watch High-risk environment; monitoring and preparation are more realistic than broad entry. 41–55 Selective Some sectors may be investable with strong controls, structuring, and local intelligence. 56–70 Entry Structured entry becomes possible in selected sectors and geographies. 71–100 Strong Strong conditions for foreign capital entry, operation, protection, and exit.
Watch Only High-risk environment; monitoring and preparation are more realistic than broad entry.

Investability Trend

Overall score movement across recent months.

27.0/100
-14.8% since Jan
0 25 50 75 100 Score Jan Feb Mar Apr May 27.0
Selected reading May 2026 Watch Only
27.0/100
Domestic28
External30
Macro18
Freedom28
Infra35
Trade25

Domestic Stability

Internal stability, policy continuity, social order, and institutional predictability.

28 /100
MoM: +27.3%

External Security & Geopolitical Risk

Regional tension, war risk, diplomatic pressure, and external security conditions.

30 /100
MoM: +20.0%

Macroeconomic Stability

Inflation, currency volatility, liquidity growth, fiscal pressure, and monetary stability.

18 /100
MoM: -18.2%

Economic & Regulatory Freedom

Pricing freedom, licensing, ownership conditions, regulation, and state intervention.

28 /100
MoM: +12.0%

Infrastructure & Execution Capacity

Power, logistics, ports, transport, internet, industrial capacity, and workforce readiness.

35 /100
MoM: +9.4%

Trade & Financial Connectivity

Sanctions, banking access, payment channels, shipping, insurance, tariffs, and capital mobility.

25 /100
MoM: +13.6%

Monthly Commentary

The May reading moves slightly above the structurally closed range but remains high-risk. Lower immediate conflict risk and cautious reopening signals supported a limited recovery, while inflation and sanctions kept broad entry conditions unattractive.

  • External security improved moderately as immediate conflict risk eased, though regional risk remained elevated.
  • Domestic stability recovered from the February-March shock but remained weak by investability standards.
  • Macroeconomic stability deteriorated relative to April because inflation pressure remained severe.
  • Infrastructure and execution capacity improved slightly as the operating environment became less disrupted.
  • Trade and financial connectivity rose only modestly because sanctions pressure and banking constraints still dominated.

Methodology

The Hurmuz Index measures Iran’s monthly investment readiness on a 0–100 scale. It does not measure opportunity alone; it measures whether capital can realistically enter, operate, be protected, and exit under current conditions.

Each monthly reading is produced through an AI-assisted analyst workflow that reviews recent macroeconomic data, policy changes, sanctions and trade conditions, security developments, infrastructure signals, market stress, and credible news flow. That evidence is converted into six sub-index scores, then combined through fixed weights to produce the final reading.

Domestic Stability Weight 17%
External Security & Geopolitical Risk Weight 17%
Macroeconomic Stability Weight 17%
Economic & Regulatory Freedom Weight 16%
Infrastructure & Execution Capacity Weight 13%
Trade & Financial Connectivity Weight 20%

Final Score = Σ(Sub-index score × weight) / 100. All dimension weights sum to 100%.

Limitations & What It Isn’t

  • It is not investment advice or a recommendation to enter Iran.
  • It is not a political endorsement or a forecast of political outcomes.
  • It is not a substitute for legal, sanctions, counterparty, or transaction-level due diligence.
  • It does not claim that a low national score eliminates all sector-specific opportunities.
  • It should be read as a monthly signal framework, not a precise prediction engine.

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