Hormuz Iran Investability Index

Iran Investment Readiness

A monthly measure of Iran’s investment readiness, execution risk, and capital access conditions. The index separates market attractiveness from the practical ability to enter, operate, protect capital, and exit.

February 2026
20.2 /100
Structurally Closed
Monthly change: -36.3%

Investability Spectrum

From structurally unattractive conditions to strong investment readiness.

20.2/100
0–25 Closed Broad foreign capital is effectively blocked or exposed to extreme operating risk. 26–40 Watch High-risk environment; monitoring and preparation are more realistic than broad entry. 41–55 Selective Some sectors may be investable with strong controls, structuring, and local intelligence. 56–70 Entry Structured entry becomes possible in selected sectors and geographies. 71–100 Strong Strong conditions for foreign capital entry, operation, protection, and exit.
Structurally Closed Broad foreign capital is effectively blocked or exposed to extreme operating risk.

Investability Trend

Overall score movement across recent months.

20.2/100
-36.3% since Jan
0 25 50 75 100 Score Jan Feb 20.2
Selected reading February 2026 Structurally Closed
20.2/100
Domestic18
External12
Macro20
Freedom22
Infra35
Trade18

Domestic Stability

Internal stability, policy continuity, social order, and institutional predictability.

18 /100
MoM: -28.0%

External Security & Geopolitical Risk

Regional tension, war risk, diplomatic pressure, and external security conditions.

12 /100
MoM: -73.3%

Macroeconomic Stability

Inflation, currency volatility, liquidity growth, fiscal pressure, and monetary stability.

20 /100
MoM: -28.6%

Economic & Regulatory Freedom

Pricing freedom, licensing, ownership conditions, regulation, and state intervention.

22 /100
MoM: -26.7%

Infrastructure & Execution Capacity

Power, logistics, ports, transport, internet, industrial capacity, and workforce readiness.

35 /100
MoM: -12.5%

Trade & Financial Connectivity

Sanctions, banking access, payment channels, shipping, insurance, tariffs, and capital mobility.

18 /100
MoM: -28.0%

Monthly Commentary

The February reading marks a severe investability shock. Geopolitical escalation, leadership uncertainty, financial restrictions, and macro stress pushed the index into structurally closed territory.

  • External security deteriorated sharply as the risk environment shifted from elevated tension to direct crisis conditions.
  • Domestic stability weakened further as leadership and internal security uncertainty increased.
  • Trade and financial connectivity fell because banking, settlement, insurance, and shipping risk became harder to manage.
  • Macroeconomic stability remained poor as inflation and currency instability reinforced investor caution.
  • Infrastructure and execution capacity weakened, though not all physical capacity was assumed to be permanently impaired.

Methodology

The Hurmuz Index measures Iran’s monthly investment readiness on a 0–100 scale. It does not measure opportunity alone; it measures whether capital can realistically enter, operate, be protected, and exit under current conditions.

Each monthly reading is produced through an AI-assisted analyst workflow that reviews recent macroeconomic data, policy changes, sanctions and trade conditions, security developments, infrastructure signals, market stress, and credible news flow. That evidence is converted into six sub-index scores, then combined through fixed weights to produce the final reading.

Domestic Stability Weight 17%
External Security & Geopolitical Risk Weight 17%
Macroeconomic Stability Weight 17%
Economic & Regulatory Freedom Weight 16%
Infrastructure & Execution Capacity Weight 13%
Trade & Financial Connectivity Weight 20%

Final Score = Σ(Sub-index score × weight) / 100. All dimension weights sum to 100%.

Limitations & What It Isn’t

  • It is not investment advice or a recommendation to enter Iran.
  • It is not a political endorsement or a forecast of political outcomes.
  • It is not a substitute for legal, sanctions, counterparty, or transaction-level due diligence.
  • It does not claim that a low national score eliminates all sector-specific opportunities.
  • It should be read as a monthly signal framework, not a precise prediction engine.

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