Hormuz Iran Investability Index

Iran Investment Readiness

A monthly measure of Iran’s investment readiness, execution risk, and capital access conditions. The index separates market attractiveness from the practical ability to enter, operate, protect capital, and exit.

March 2026
17.4 /100
Structurally Closed
Monthly change: -13.9%

Investability Spectrum

From structurally unattractive conditions to strong investment readiness.

17.4/100
0–25 Closed Broad foreign capital is effectively blocked or exposed to extreme operating risk. 26–40 Watch High-risk environment; monitoring and preparation are more realistic than broad entry. 41–55 Selective Some sectors may be investable with strong controls, structuring, and local intelligence. 56–70 Entry Structured entry becomes possible in selected sectors and geographies. 71–100 Strong Strong conditions for foreign capital entry, operation, protection, and exit.
Structurally Closed Broad foreign capital is effectively blocked or exposed to extreme operating risk.

Investability Trend

Overall score movement across recent months.

17.4/100
-45.1% since Jan
0 25 50 75 100 Score Jan Feb Mar 17.4
Selected reading March 2026 Structurally Closed
17.4/100
Domestic15
External10
Macro18
Freedom20
Infra30
Trade15

Domestic Stability

Internal stability, policy continuity, social order, and institutional predictability.

15 /100
MoM: -16.7%

External Security & Geopolitical Risk

Regional tension, war risk, diplomatic pressure, and external security conditions.

10 /100
MoM: -16.7%

Macroeconomic Stability

Inflation, currency volatility, liquidity growth, fiscal pressure, and monetary stability.

18 /100
MoM: -10.0%

Economic & Regulatory Freedom

Pricing freedom, licensing, ownership conditions, regulation, and state intervention.

20 /100
MoM: -9.1%

Infrastructure & Execution Capacity

Power, logistics, ports, transport, internet, industrial capacity, and workforce readiness.

30 /100
MoM: -14.3%

Trade & Financial Connectivity

Sanctions, banking access, payment channels, shipping, insurance, tariffs, and capital mobility.

15 /100
MoM: -16.7%

Monthly Commentary

March is the weakest reading in the baseline series. The combined pressure of conflict risk, leadership uncertainty, disrupted connectivity, inflation stress, and trade-finance blockage made broad investment conditions effectively closed.

  • External security remained near the bottom of the scale due to severe conflict and regional-risk conditions.
  • Domestic stability was scored very low as internal continuity and investor confidence remained under heavy pressure.
  • Macroeconomic stability stayed deeply weak because inflation, currency volatility, and policy uncertainty remained acute.
  • Infrastructure capacity was impaired by security conditions and operational disruption, including internet and logistics stress.
  • Trade and financial connectivity was scored at a very low level because payments, insurance, shipping, and capital mobility were highly constrained.

Methodology

The Hurmuz Index measures Iran’s monthly investment readiness on a 0–100 scale. It does not measure opportunity alone; it measures whether capital can realistically enter, operate, be protected, and exit under current conditions.

Each monthly reading is produced through an AI-assisted analyst workflow that reviews recent macroeconomic data, policy changes, sanctions and trade conditions, security developments, infrastructure signals, market stress, and credible news flow. That evidence is converted into six sub-index scores, then combined through fixed weights to produce the final reading.

Domestic Stability Weight 17%
External Security & Geopolitical Risk Weight 17%
Macroeconomic Stability Weight 17%
Economic & Regulatory Freedom Weight 16%
Infrastructure & Execution Capacity Weight 13%
Trade & Financial Connectivity Weight 20%

Final Score = Σ(Sub-index score × weight) / 100. All dimension weights sum to 100%.

Limitations & What It Isn’t

  • It is not investment advice or a recommendation to enter Iran.
  • It is not a political endorsement or a forecast of political outcomes.
  • It is not a substitute for legal, sanctions, counterparty, or transaction-level due diligence.
  • It does not claim that a low national score eliminates all sector-specific opportunities.
  • It should be read as a monthly signal framework, not a precise prediction engine.

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