The July reading falls to 21/100, returning the index to Structurally Closed territory after June’s partial recovery. Renewed US-Iran hostilities, repeated strikes, attacks affecting civilian and energy infrastructure, and severe disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sharply weakened external security, execution conditions, and trade connectivity. Domestic institutions and core commercial activity continued to function, preventing the reading from falling below the March crisis level. However, record-low currency conditions, inflation above 60%, power and communications pressure, maritime insurance risk, and renewed sanctions left broad foreign-capital entry, protection, and exit highly constrained at month-end.

• Renewed military escalation pushed external-security conditions close to crisis levels, although the late-month pause prevented a return to the March low.
• Domestic stability weakened under wartime anxiety, economic pressure, casualties, and heightened security conditions, but state institutions and most core commercial activity continued to function.
• Macroeconomic stability remained extremely weak as inflation above 60%, record-low currency conditions, reconstruction pressure, and energy disruption reduced pricing visibility and capital protection.
• Strikes affecting power, transport, communications, and other civilian infrastructure, together with summer electricity constraints, reduced execution reliability across exposed sectors and provinces.
• Trade and financial connectivity deteriorated sharply as Hormuz traffic remained near a standstill, maritime insurance risk increased, sanctions expanded, and banking, shipping, settlement, and capital-mobility channels remained severely restricted.