HORMUZ STRAIT & ENERGY RADAR

Strait of Hormuz Radar

Energy markets, shipping conditions and maritime risk in one live decision view.

Snapshot refreshed 48 minutes ago
IRAN PRICE · LOW CONFIDENCE
الخام الإيراني الثقيل $101.60 Latest published · Sep 25
GME عُمان $111.58 GME official daily marker · 25 Sep, 2026
BRENT MARKET $97.47 Futures · delayed market cross-check
Physical spot · $114.89 · Sep 22
ضغوط تدفقات Hormuz 80/100 SEVERE · STRAIT RADAR
إمدادات النفط الخام الإيراني

إنتاج النفط الخام الإيراني

مليون برميل/يوم
المصادر الثانوية لمنظمة أوبك 2.09 mb/d Aug 2026 · -399 kb/d m/m · headline estimate
المؤشرات المرجعية للخام

المؤشرات المرجعية الإقليمية للخام

دولار أمريكي/برميل
المرجع اليومي للخام الإيراني الثقيلObserved · TGJU daily Iran Heavy · 2026-09-25
$101.60
تحقق مقارن من سعر الخام الإيراني الثقيلIndependent frontend · OilMonster · September 23, 2026
$96.49
المرجع العُمانيإقليمي · المؤشر اليومي الرسمي لـ GME
$111.58
Brent physical spotLatest published · Sep 22
$114.89
Brent futuresDelayed cross-check
$97.47
المضيق والشحن

أوضاع التدفق

DISRUPTED
Direct traffic feed is stale. Stale transit counts are hidden; current status and Flow Stress use fresh Strait Radar evidence.
Current statusDISRUPTEDStrait Radar
Flow stress80/100SEVERE · STRAIT RADAR
STRAIT RADAR

What changed, what matters

SEVERE · 85/100Updated 8 hours ago

Commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz are severely disrupted by kinetic attacks and a 'SEVERE' security threat level, though physical closure has not occurred. Tanker freight rates remain near historic peaks, but recent diplomatic contacts have led to some stabilization.

Commercial transits
SEVERESTABLE
Transits ongoing with 92+ non-Iranian-linked vessels tracked Sept 14–20, but heavy reliance on AIS-off passages.
أجور نقل الناقلات
SEVEREEASING
VLCC TD3C rates peaked near $1.21 million/day TCE on Sept 17, but gains flattened by Sept 24.
War-risk insurance
STRESSEDSTABLE
War risk premiums remain elevated due to kinetic attacks and severe threat rating.
Congestion
NORMALSTABLE
No reports of significant port or transit congestion.
Energy flow
STRESSEDSTABLE
Energy flow continues but under severe security risks and increased operational costs.
SECURITYCRITICAL

Kinetic Attacks and Crew Casualties Off Musandam, Oman

On Sept 23, 2026, the *Cape Dao* was struck off Musandam, causing an engine room fire and one fatality. On Sept 22, the *Minoan Dignity* was struck, resulting in engine room damage and the death of its chief engineer.

NAVIGATIONHIGH

Severe Security Threat Rating Maintained, AIS-off Transits Increase

JMIC maintains a 'SEVERE' threat level. Lloyd’s List Intelligence tracked 92 non-Iranian-linked commercial transits Sept 14–20, with a significant share operating AIS-off, including Saudi-owned Bahri VLCCs.

SHIPPINGHIGH

VLCC Tanker Freight Rates Near Historic Highs

Baltic Exchange benchmarks for VLCC TD3C route reached record levels near $1.21 million/day TCE on Sept 17. Gains flattened by Sept 24 following reports of US-Iran diplomatic contacts.

LOGISTICSMEDIUM

Omani Forces Conduct Search, Rescue, and Coordination Operations

Omani maritime forces have maintained continuous emergency coordination and medical evacuation responses in territorial waters off the Musandam peninsula to assist damaged merchant tonnage.

MARKET IMPLICATIONS
OilElevated Brent and Oman crude prices reflect supply risk, with Iran Heavy also high, but futures show some easing.
ShippingTanker freight rates remain extremely high due to security risks, despite recent flattening, increasing transport costs.
InsuranceWar risk insurance premiums are likely to remain elevated due to the 'SEVERE' threat rating and recent kinetic attacks.
NEXT 7 DAYS
Further kinetic attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman.
Developments in US-Iran diplomatic contacts and their impact on regional security.
Changes in the number of AIS-off transits and their implications for maritime transparency.

Neutral vessels remain exposed to risks despite some sanctioned vessels transiting without detention.

ماذا تقول البيانات؟

The daily Iran Heavy reference is $13.29 below the latest EIA Brent physical spot reference. Hormuz flow stress is severe at 80/100. The latest traffic source reports throughput below 2% of normal. That shipping signal is stale, so it should be read as the last reported condition rather than a current live reading.

إيران / برنت-13.3 $/bbl
عُمان / برنت-3.3 $/bbl
فارق إيران / عُمان وفق النموذج—