Why Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea corridor, the UAE’s Fujairah pipelines and emerging export routes can reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, but cannot eliminate its strategic importance. Executive Summary The Strait of Hormuz may become less indispensable to individual oil exporters without becoming irrelevant to global energy markets. The disruptions of 2026 have accelerated…
Iranian manufacturers are facing an increasingly difficult combination of expensive inputs, shrinking inventories and weak demand. The latest business surveys show pressure across industry, but the risks differ sharply between automotive assembly, chemicals, food processing and heavy manufacturing. A factory does not need to run out of every raw material to stop producing. Sometimes a…
Iran and Kenya are seeking closer commercial ties, with pharmaceuticals, agriculture, industrial products and infrastructure among the proposed areas of cooperation. Existing trade data, however, points to a narrower and more revealing picture: a market already buying Iranian bitumen, a valuable tea trade facing unresolved obstacles, and several promising sectors where commercial access still needs…
Disruptions in the Persian Gulf have turned sulfur, a by-product of oil and gas processing, into an expensive industrial input. The consequences extend from copper mines to fertilizer plants, creating a complicated mix of risks and opportunities for Iran. The global sulfur market rarely attracts the attention given to oil, copper or natural gas. Yet…
One of the strongest El Niño events on record is developing in the Pacific. Historical evidence suggests it could bring wetter conditions to parts of Iran, but the consequences for agriculture, water supplies and industry will depend on much more than rainfall. Iran may be heading into an unusually important rainy season. Thousands of kilometres…
Iran and Turkmenistan have spent decades as neighbours with more physical connectivity than commercial scale. Two gas pipelines cross their border. Two major rail routes connect Iran with the Turkmen network and, through it, Central Asia. Several road crossings link northeastern Iran directly with Turkmen markets. The two countries share access to the Caspian Sea,…
Iran’s solar market is moving into a different phase. For years, the country’s renewable-energy story was largely about potential: abundant sunlight, a large electricity system, rising power demand and repeated government targets for new capacity. That is beginning to change. Solar projects are now being commissioned at a much faster pace, financing is being directed…
Copper is becoming one of the most strategically important industrial metals in the world. Power-grid expansion, electric vehicles, data centres, renewable energy systems and electrification are all pushing copper demand higher, while new mine supply remains difficult, slow and capital-intensive. Recent market conditions reflect that tension: copper prices have moved to historically elevated levels, and…
A 55-container block train moving from China to Iran through Central Asia gives a useful test of a much larger question: can rail become a serious alternative to maritime trade between China and Iran? The answer depends on what “alternative” means. Rail cannot match the volume economics of container shipping. But for cargo where two…
Iran’s inbound tourism market is considerably smaller than it was two years ago. But the decline has not been evenly distributed. The visitors who are still entering the country increasingly come from nearby markets, often through land borders, and many travel for reasons that are less discretionary than a conventional holiday: pilgrimage, medical treatment, family…